The Voice of Mirza Xazar

Minister says smuggling of Iraqi oil to Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Iran goes on unabated

Mirza Khazar — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 16:31:09 -0500

By Laith Jawad

Azzaman, December 17, 2011

Smuggling of Iraqi crude is going on unabated with contraband shipments reaching as far afield as Afghanistan, Azerbaijan and the Gulf states, said Hussein al-Shahristani, deputy prime minister for energy affairs.

In an interview with Azzaman, to be published in full tomorrow (Sunday), Shahristani singled out the Iraqi Kurdish autonomous region as being heavily involved in the smuggling of oil to Iran and other states.

The minister gave no figures on the volume of oil that is being smuggled but hinted that it was carried out on a scale not known before.

“Oil smuggling operations are continuing from Iraq to Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Iran and the Gulf ports,” said Shahristani. “Oil smuggling operations are continuing in the Kurdish region to these countries and we have spotted these operations via satellites. They are documented with pictures.”

Shahristani did not say what measures the government has in mind to halt smuggling and whether any high-ranking Kurdish authorities were involved.

It was not also clear how the Kurds in northern Iraq managed to smuggle oil to the Gulf ports in the south. Earlier reports spoke of Iraqi Shiite militias heavily involved in smuggling from the southern Iraqi oil fields.

But Shahristani said the central government had no control over the quantities of oil the Kurdish region produces, which are estimated at about 100,000 barrels a day.

The oil issue was reported to have been solved and the Finance Ministry has already funneled $427 million to Kurdish coffers to settle differences over oil production and exports originating in the Kurdish region.

But the minister said: “The central government has no knowledge of oil exports originating in the Kurdish region and that it receives no royalties.”

Shahristani is very critical of the deals the Kurds have struck with foreign firms to develop oil fields in their region, comprising the three provinces of Dahouk, Arbil and Sulaimaniya.

In the interview, he insisted that the deals were illegal and that development of oil fields, striking of deals with foreign firms and issues related to production, output and royalties are the sole prerogative of the central government in Baghdad.

source: Azzaman.com

Azerbaijan: Opposition activists sentenced over peaceful protests

Mirza Khazar — Mon, 03 Oct 2011 16:14:41 -0400

Amnesty İnternational

3 October 2011

The Azerbaijani authorities must immediately release three leading opposition activists imprisoned for organizing and taking part in peaceful protests, Amnesty International said today after a court in Baku sentenced them to two and a half years each in prison on Monday.

Arif Hajili, Chairman of the Musavat Party, Tural Abbasli, head of Musavat’s Youth Organization and Mahammad Majidli, of the Popular Front Party (PFP) were convicted of “promoting social disorder” after taking part in a pro-reform protest on 2 April, which was violently dispersed by police.

“Today, few critical voices are tolerated in Azerbaijan. Increasingly, the government is targeting leading activists in an attempt to silence the opposition, and in the hope that making examples out of the most outspoken will dissuade others from speaking out,” said Nicola Duckworth, Amnesty International’s Director for Europe and Central Asia.

“These men are being locked up simply for taking part in a peaceful demonstration calling for political reform and an end to government corruption. This systematic harassment and imprisonment of opposition activists and anyone who dares to speak out against President Aliyev’s government must end, “she said.

“The convictions Arif Hajili, Tural Abbasli and Mahammad Majidli must be overturned and they should be released immediately and unconditionally,” she added.

A fourth opposition activist, deputy chairman of the PFP Fuad Gahramanly was given a suspended two-year prison sentence. The judge ruled that he be placed under house arrest for two years.

“This judgment is completely unjust and politically motivated,” Fuad Gahramanly told Amnesty International.

“Being convicted of criminal charges without any proof and receiving the heaviest penalties shows that in practice, freedom of assembly is considered a criminal offence by the authorities,” he added.

No journalists or opposition party members were allowed into the court. Several police officers surrounded the building, while a large crowd of supporters for the four men gathered in front of the court building.

Tural Abbasli, 29, was arrested during the 2 April protests and says he was beaten while in custody.

His lawyer, Anar Gasimov, was not allowed to see him for the first two days of his detention and said that when he finally managed to visit his client at the police station, he had visible bruises around his eyes and on his hands.

According to his lawyer, no evidence has been presented against him other than his party membership.

Arif Hajili, 49, told the court that the police had physically abused him during his arrest on 2 April, despite offering no resistance whatsoever in their attempt to arrest him.

Mahammad Majidli says police dragged him to a bus and sprayed him with teargas. He was then held at the Sabail District Police Department in Baku for 30 hours without water, he told the court.

Amnesty International considers the three imprisoned activists to be prisoners of conscience, detained solely for peacefully exercising their right to freedom of expression.

2011 has seen a marked increase in the number of people in Azerbaijan prosecuted on trumped-up charges in response to their attempts to speak out against an authoritarian and corrupt government.

The overwhelming majority of these individuals are convicted after unfair trials and sentenced to long prison terms.

Source: Amnesty İnternational

“Leave Nakhichevan Right Now!” What We Don’t know About Nakhchivan

Mirza Khazar — Sun, 18 Sep 2011 09:49:28 -0400

Courtesy www.dreamstime.com

Summary of two articles by Shahveled Chobanoglu in Azerbaijani language published in the newspaper "Azadliq"

Summary in English Prepared by Mushvig Mamedov

Nakhchivan. What tells you this name? Nakhchivan is an autonomous republic included to Azerbaijan Republic. A place with huge historic heritage, traditions, hospitability? Yes , that is true. But, besides that Nakhchivan is reported to be one of the most isolated regions in the world. According to the reports of human rights activist and journalists local population is oppressed by local state officers, rights are humiliated, political convictions are victimized. I will try to break this closeness as well as I can by translating into English blogs and articles about Nakhchivan.

Just few days ago, a group of journalist and human rights activists visited Nakhchivan. Just upon arrival, they were told to leave Nakhchivan as soon as possible. But they could talk with local activist and peoples facing the oppression of Police officers and ExCom. Shahveled Chobanoglu, who is a freelance journalist, is one of members of delegation visiting Nakhchivan. Recently he wrote an article in Azadlig newspaper (http://www.azadliq.info) named ‘’What we don’t know about Nakhchivan’’. I am going to present some passages from this article:

n --- We, a group of journalist and lowers, visited Nakhchivan and came back. I deliberately underlined our return because never did our companions return from Nakhchivan without problems facing there. They were beaten, told swear-words and expatriated. That is why our friends and acquaintances congratulated us upon our return. This congratulation itself proves us the heartbreaking and difficult situation there. Because a place can’t reach easily the state of inadmissibility which it has now. This based on humiliations of rights, unbearable state of local population or generally Azerbaijanis… Just ask question to yourself: is it possible to expatriate Nakhchvanis from Baku?

Head of department of Internal Ministry of Nakhchivan threatened us so:

-Leave Nakhchivan now!

--- Everybody news that nobody can look at the citizen of Azerbaijan as a quest within the borders of Azerbaijan. Regardless our registration, each of us has right to be without an obstacle anywhere in Azerbaijan where he/she pleases and the commitment of the State is not to obstacle this movement but to create conditions for that. But most surprising is not that the obstacles are created for Human rights activist and journalist to visit Nakhchivan. We understand that it is done for concealing the truth there. What is surprising and horrific is that there are no confortable conditions for locals to live and work in Nakhchivan. Most part of locals had to leave Nakhchivan…

--- Not only persons visiting Nakhchivan but also locals feel as quest in their own home. Ordinary people are glad to flee. Significant part of population has already left Nakhchivan. They work in Iran, Turkey and other places in most difficult works and live their suffering lives. Not so much we know about Nakhchivan…

--- There are some villages where all young generation left their houses, and when the old are dying they are buried by support of soldiers.

--- Very few things what is going on there are highlighted in mass media. The reason is that the people are told not to complain and give interview. They are threatened and frightened so that not to tell anybody about problems they face and if somebody asks to deny.

--- All kinds of rights are humiliated demonstratively. The peoples are followed even in tea houses and can’t come together. It is also the humiliation of human beings’ feeling who are in need. But the situation there can be changed. We must try for that.

P.S the links to original text:

http://azadliq.info/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8444%3Anaxcvan-haqda-nlri-bilmirik-birinci-yaz&catid=32%3Aahvld-cobanolu&Itemid=41 and http://azadliq.info/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8479%3Anaxcvan-haqda-nlri-bilmirik-ikinci-yaz&catid=32%3Aahvld-cobanolu&Itemid=41

Call for the Immediate Release of Vidadi Isgandarov, Human Rights Defende

Mirza Khazar — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 07:57:55 -0400

Vidadi Isganderov was born on May 3, 1962 in Goychay district of the Republic ofAzerbaijan . He studied in the Faculty of Prosecutor of the Kharkov Institute of Law in 1983-1988. Te was assigned to different posts in prosecutor’s offices ofUkraine in 1988-1992 and of the Republic ofAzerbaijan in 1992-2002. He was unlawfully fired from services in law enforcement bodies in account of his unapologetic stance on state officials’ arbitrariness and abuse of power. In order to fight against state officials’ tyranny, impunity, pervasive corruption and bribery, he founded an advocacy organization of “Public Union for Assistance in Promotion of Democracy” in 2007 of which he is the president. He is married and has two children.

Vidadi Isgandarov has protected and succeeded in restitution of the trodden and infringed rights of hundreds of compatriots both at executive level and in a court of law.

60 inhabitants of Goychay district appealed to Vidadi Isgandarov that Mansur Mammadov (close relative of Ziya Mammadov, Minister of Transportation of the Republic of Azerbaijan), the head of the Executive Authority of Goychay district solicited huge amount of bribe for documentation of lands of their own. Publicizing the case, Vidadi Isgandarov reached the resolution of the issue at state level.

Vugar Mammadyarov, the chief of the Police Department of Goychay district, through unlawfully intruding the activity of entrepreneurs, threatening and blackmailing them in the police department solicited huge amount of bribe. After having met with Ramil Usubov, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic ofAzerbaijan in relation with the case, Vidadi Isgandarov succeeded in the resolution of the issue and removal of Vugar Mammadyarov from his post.

Aftandil Babayev, chief investigator of Prosecutor’s Office of Goychay district, posing a problem of the medical examination of corpses, solicited bribe from the close and immediate relatives of persons who had died in account of different reasons. The citizens complained of the violations to Vidadi Isgandarov who publicized the case, exposed the illegal trafficking of corpse and succeeded in dismissal from the post of and filing of criminal charge against Aftandil Babayev.

The driver of KAMAZ who physically inflicted, whose driving license, money, mobile phone was forced by the employees of the Department of Transportations in Khachmaz district of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and who was illegally imprisoned appealed to Vidadi Isgandarov who exposed the case in the printed media, brought the case before the court and succeeded in release of the innocent from the prison and punishment and dismissal from the post of the perpetrator.

Also, Vidadi Isgandarov protected and restituted the rights of dozen of inhabitants subjected to the tyranny of corrupted officials in Goychay district.

Elbrus Aliyev, the owner of “GEN LLC” Construction Company, who collected 20 million AZN from the clients for the construction of the building, has not been able to complete the construction works as the most of the money was bribed to state officials. The deceived clients appealed to Vidadi Isgandarov to protect their violated rights. Vidadi Isgandarov brought the case before government and law enforcement bodies, exposed the abuse of power by and arbitrariness of state officials in printed media. The case is still remaining unsolved due to unlawful detention of Vidadi Isgandarov.

The mother of Elvin Asgarov, who was beaten to death by police in Baku , appealed to Vidadi Isgandarov who raised the case before the President and Prosecutor Generals’ Office and highlighted it in the print media. The case is still remaining unsolved due to unlawful detention of Vidadi Isgandarov.

In addition, Vidadi Isgandarov put forward his independent candidacy in Goychay – Agdash election district number 89 in 2010 parliamentary elections.

In a number of meetings with voters he promised to be committed to continuing to fight for promotion of democracy, protection of human rights, justice and against corruption. His opponent was Shamsaddin Hajiyev, member of ruling New Azerbaijan Party, rector of Azerbaijan State Economic University . During the election process, Vidadi Isgandarov gathered audio video materials that prove falsification of election, and that was submitted to the Council of Europe. But authorities tried to persuade, warned him against submitting the materials to the Council of Europe because of fear and persecution of international community, and otherwise threatened to file criminal charge against him. 7 days after the election, on November 7, 2010 he was prosecuted under Articles 159 (interference in voting of voters) and 160 (interference in the activity of election commission) of the Criminal Code of the Republic ofAzerbaijan . The case was dismissed due to groundless arguments.

Vidadi Isgandarov who is the voluntary member of Public Chamber, the so-called “Ijtimai Palata” established by Opposition Parties in 2010, was subsequently elected the chairman of Public Inquiry Commission of Public Chamber. He was detained while conducting the monitoring of peaceful demonstration held by Public Chamber on April 2, 2011. By the decision of the Nasimi District Court he was sentenced to 8 days’ imprisonment. Although Vidadi Isgandarov filed an appeal on his unlawful imprisonment to the Court of Appeals, the complaint was rejected.

He was repeatedly warned against participating in the demonstrations, highlighting the violations and threatened with imprisonment and criminal charges otherwise.

For the purpose of blocking the monitoring of the demonstration, 2 hours before the meeting of Pubic Chamber held on April 17, 2011, Vidadi Isgandarov was detained in the center of the city while having lunch. By the decision of the Nasimi District Court he was sentenced to15 days’ imprisonment.

On May 2, 2011, on the same date of the expiration of the prison term, Vidadi Isgandarov was filed with a new criminal charge on the basis of the articles (159 and 160) of the Criminal Code that had formerly been filed and dismissed. The criminal case is being investigated by the Directorate for Grave Crimes of the Prosecutor General’s Office of the Republic ofAzerbaijan . Purpose of the detention of Vidadi Isgandarov is to prevent him from protecting human rights and restrict him from political activities.

He is suffering from serious form of diabetes, heart failure and hypertonia.

We appeal to YOU to call on the Government of Azerbaijan to immediately release Vidadi Isgandarov, the human rights defender and proactive fighter for democracy and human rights, from unlawful and politically motivated imprisonment!

Yours Sincerely,

Ogtay Isgandarli

Chairman of the Committee for Defense of the Rights of Vidadi Isgandarov

Thomas Melia: U.S. Concerned About Fundamental Freedoms In Azerbaijan

Mirza Khazar — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 05:05:22 -0400

source: Turan

WASHINGTON DC. July 27, 2011: “U.S. is concerned about state of fundamental freedoms in Azerbaijan”, said U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Thomas O. Melia, who recently returned from his visit to Azerbaijan. Melia spoke at the House Foreign Affairs Europe and Eurasia Subcommittee hearing on “Eastern Europe: The State of Democracy and Freedom” July 26, TURAN’s Washington DC correspondent reports.

Specifically, Melia raised concern over the restrictions on freedom of expression, assembly, as well as “a very limited capacity of citizens to change their government through peaceful elections”.

“Elections in Azerbaijan continue to fall below international standards”, the Administration official said, citing the OSCE ODIHR assessment from the latest parliament elections. “November 7, 2010 parliamentary elections included a deficient candidate registration process, limits on freedom of assembly and expression, a restrictive political environment, skewed media coverage of candidates, and falsifying vote counts”.

Mr. Melia also noted that the imprisonment of independent activists such as Bakhtiyar Hajiyev, opposition party activists Jabbar Savalanli, and human rights defender Vidadi Iskenderov, is a continuing problem widely perceived to be politically motivated.

“We continue to urge Azerbaijan to resolve these and related cases in a manner consistent with the government‘s commitment to freedom of assembly and expression”, Melia said.

He said that the Azeri government should allow the National Democratic Institute and Human Rights House in the country, to resume their activities, and permit Voice of America and RFE/RL to use national FM frequencies. “We urge greater respect for religious freedom, including permitting the registration of minority religions and allowing individuals to manifest their beliefs through religious attire. I raised many of these issues with senior government officials during my visit”, he added.

According to the Deputy Assistant Secretary, in all three South Caucasus countries, US government programs promote a number of universal values, including democratic electoral processes and capacity building for defense lawyers, human rights organizations, and independent media.

David Kramer, President of Freedom House, raised the question whether the scenarios seen in Cairo and Tunis were possible in Moscow, Minsk, Baku, and elsewhere in Eurasia.

Of the three states in the Caucasus, only Georgia shows signs of progress towards democracy, while Azerbaijan showed more backsliding, he said.

“The West is interested in seeing these countries become more democratic; policy should include deeper involvement and response to violations, not silence. This will not be easy given competing demands elsewhere in the world, but if the majority of countries in Eurasia continue to veer off the democratic path, the challenges for the West will only grow”, he said.

Nadia M. Diuk from the National Endowment for Democracy also talked about Azerbaijan. “Despite the welcome release of the imprisoned youth movement bloggers and a leading independent journalist earlier this year, arrests of democracy activists continue in Azerbaijan, where the overall trend is a slow and painful decline of political pluralism and civil society”, she said. “Constitutional amendments adopted in March 2009 removed presidential term limits, the November 2010 parliamentary elections were considered to be the worst ever, and an attempt to introduce an extremely restrictive NGO law in 2009 was diverted only as a result of international pressure. Civic activists and human rights defenders continue to suffer harassment, and the freedom of assembly is non-existent. Many young activists have recently been detained, usually on trumped up charges of narcotics possession, hooliganism or other fabricated criminal offences. One youth activist imprisoned in 2005, Ruslan Bashirli, is still in jail”.

Compared to Azerbaijan, the prospects for democracy and freedom look more hopeful in Armenia, the analysts agreed, where protest rallies of up to 15,000 people have taken place recently and political prisoners who were held after the 2008 protests have been released.

According to Diuk, the US should look to this region as the source of a great wealth of experience on how the enemies of freedom are ever on the alert to assert their dominance, but also how the forces for freedom and democracy will always find a way to push back in a struggle that demands our support.

“And as we look forward to a period of austerity, we should be mindful that a strategic and concerted effort through both diplomatic and non-governmental actors is the most cost-effective way to achieve these aims”, Diuk added (Turan).

US State Department Human Trafficking Report - Azerbaijan

Mirza Khazar — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 13:29:23 -0400

AZERBAIJAN (Tier 2 Watch List)

Azerbaijan is a source, transit, and destination country
for men, women, and children subjected to forced labor,
and women and children subjected to sex trafficking. Men
and boys from Azerbaijan are subjected to conditions of
forced labor in Russia and Moldova. Women and children
from Azerbaijan are subjected to sex trafficking in the
UAE, Turkey, Russia, and Iran. Women and children from
Azerbaijan are subjected to sex trafficking and children
are subjected to forced labor, including forced begging,
within the country. Azerbaijan serves as a transit country
for women from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan subjected
to forced prostitution in Turkey and the UAE. Azerbaijan
is a destination country for women from Uzbekistan and
Kyrgyzstan subjected to forced prostitution. Azerbaijan
is also a destination country for men from Turkey,
Afghanistan, and China subjected to conditions of forced
labor, primarily in the construction industry. Chinese
women are subjected to forced labor as street vendors
within Azerbaijan.

The Government of Azerbaijan does not fully comply with
the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking.
The Government of Azerbaijan has not made sufficient
progress in investigating, prosecuting, or convicting labor
trafficking offenses or in identifying victims of forced
labor; therefore, Azerbaijan is placed on Tier 2 Watch
List for a fourth consecutive year. Azerbaijan was not
placed on Tier 3 per Section 107 of the 2008 Trafficking
Victims Protection Reauthorization Act, however, as the
government has a written plan that, if implemented,
would constitute making significant efforts to bring
itself into compliance with the minimum standards for
the elimination of trafficking and is devoting sufficient
resources to implement that plan. During the reporting
period, the government acknowledged that forced labor
is a problem within Azerbaijan and investigated at
least three reports of forced labor. It did not, however,
prosecute or convict any trafficking offenders for forced
labor. Moreover, the reported number of sex trafficking
prosecutions and convictions declined from the previous
year. The government identified three Azerbaijani victims
of forced labor in Poland and investigated an allegation
of 25 Azerbaijanis subjected to forced labor in Russia. The
government also provided assistance to some domestic
victims of trafficking without requiring them to submit a
police report.

http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/164453.pdf

US State Department Human Trafficking Report - Azerbaijan

Mirza Khazar — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 13:29:23 -0400

AZERBAIJAN (Tier 2 Watch List)

http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/164453.pdf

The FCO's* human rights work 2010-11 - written evidence on Azerbaijan

Mirza Khazar — Mon, 06 Jun 2011 10:55:18 -0400

The FCO's* human rights work 2010-11 - written evidence

AZERBAIJAN

1. Britain is the dominant player in Azerbaijan’s economy by a long way. Last year, the UK invested almost £1bn in the country or 51.9% of total foreign investment in Azerbaijan. [11] Most of this was made by BP, the largest foreign company operating in the country. Yet British involvement in the country has not led to an improved human rights situation. The current President Ilham Aliyev was touted as a potential "reformer" when he inherited power from his father.

2. However, the human rights situation has not improved. Dissent is met with repression, journalists are imprisoned on spurious charges and there is no freedom of assembly. In April, calm attempts at pro-democracy protests inspired by Egypt and Tunisia were violently quashed [12] and journalists are being harassed, kidnapped and beaten on a daily basis. [13]

3. Parliamentary elections in November were condemned by OSCE and European Parliament monitors as "not sufficient to constitute meaningful progress in the democratic development of the country", due in part to "restrictions of fundamental freedoms, media bias, the dominance of public life by one party, and serious violations on election day". [14] Ilham Aliyev and his father Heydar Aliyev have ruled Azerbaijan for all but a handful of years since 1969.

4. In interviews with PLATFORM in 2009 and 2010, civil society actors and independent observers operating in Azerbaijan were clear that BP’s role in the country buttresses and bankrolls the regime. [15] British corporate investments provide Aliyev’s authoritarian government with international acceptability and relevance as a "strategic partner of the West" [16] , enabling continued denial of freedom and democracy to the people of Azerbaijan.

5. Trade missions and invitations boost President Aliyev’s reputation further. In particular, the Duke of York’s repeated visits have enabled Aliyev to build an "image as someone . . . received at the very highest level of the European aristocracy", according to Ilgar Mammadov, an opposition spokesperson. "We never felt that Prince Andrew’s contribution has helped the democratic process." [17]

6. Meanwhile the Aliyev regime has been explicit that BP oil revenues will be spent on militarizing and arming the country so that it can outmatch Armenia. In October 2010, President Aliyev announced that "Next year, our total military spending will be more than $3 billion. If we consider that the entire state budget of Armenia, which continues to keep our lands under occupation, is slightly above $2 billion, we can see that the task we have set earlier that Azerbaijan’s military expenses should exceed Armenia’s total budget has already been fulfilled. It is a reality today. Over time, we, of course, will further increase our costs." [18]

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmfaff/writev/human/hr14.htm

Impact of the Arab revolutions on the post-Soviet world

Mirza Khazar — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 14:24:00 -0400

Carnegie Moscow Center Alexey Malashenko's comments __ "As for the influence that the three Arab revolutions could have on the former Soviet republics, in particular in Central Asia, this has been a trendy subject of discussion over the last month, but any real impact so far is close to zero. Certainly, the forced departure of a couple of Arab leaders aroused a bit of an inferiority complex among some in the former Soviet republics, along the lines of, "Look at how brave and decisive the Egyptians and Tunisians are; what about us?…" But at the same time, most people in these countries remain passive and not ready to take decisive action. The "Libyan effect" has also played a role in this, similar to the illustrative effect of the civil war in Tajikistan, to which Central Asia's authoritarian rulers constantly alluded, justifying their harsh but reliably stable rule. At the same time, there is reason to believe that these leaders, like Gaddafi, are prepared to take the strongest possible measures to protect their power (suffice it here to remember the way Islam Karimov behaved in Andijan). __ http://carnegieendowment.org/files/MalashenkoBriefing_2011_March_ENG.pdf

Alexey Malashenko's comments on the impact of the Arab revolutions on the post-Soviet world

Mirza Khazar — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 10:59:00 -0400

(taken from Alexey Malashenko, "The Limits of Endless Revolution", Carnegie Moscow Center Briefing 13 (2), March 2011, available at /files/MalashenkoBriefing_2011_March_ENG.pdf) __ "As for the influence that the three Arab revolutions could have on the former Soviet republics, in particular in Central Asia, this has been a trendy subject of discussion over the last month, but any real impact so far is close to zero. Certainly, the forced departure of a couple of Arab leaders aroused a bit of an inferiority complex among some in the former Soviet republics, along the lines of, "Look at how brave and decisive the Egyptians and Tunisians are; what about us?…" But at the same time, most people in these countries remain passive and not ready to take decisive action. The "Libyan effect" has also played a role in this, similar to the illustrative effect of the civil war in Tajikistan, to which Central Asia's authoritarian rulers constantly alluded, justifying their harsh but reliably stable rule. At the same time, there is reason to believe that these leaders, like Gaddafi, are prepared to take the strongest possible measures to protect their power (suffice it here to remember the way Islam Karimov behaved in Andijan). Each revolution will continue in asynchronous fashion rather than as a chain reaction, ripening independently in each individual country, fed by internal problems. External influence will always remain a secondary factor. Instead of pointing at foreign designs and scandals in others' backyards, the post-Soviet authoritarian rulers would therefore be better off thinking about real social, economic and political reform that could not only ensure stability (which has long since turned into stagnation), but, most importantly, could also give impetus to the modernization that has become such a trendy term among the Russian political elite." __