The Voice of Mirza Xazar

22 May 2001

NEWS BRIEFS

A Fight Between Clans In Baku, Or A Sign Of Aliev's Weakness?

Recent commentaries and reports in the Azerbaijani press suggests that a real political struggle is underway between the so- called "clans" represented in upper echelons of power in Baku. The fight between those "clans" intensified last week when another group representing Western Azerbaijanis (Azerbaijanis from Armenia) created the new "Erivan Birliyi" (Erevan Unity) society. The founders of this new entity insist that their society has no political goals and pursues only "public goals." But in spite of this insistence, most political observers in Baku, as well as most commentators in the Azerbaijani press, believethat the main goal of the "Erivan Birliyi" is to become a sort of "center of power" in the event of Heydar Aliev's demise. Both arguments seem to be sincere, but an attempt by Western Azerbaijanis to hold on their influence within the upper leadership in Baku suggests that after Aliev's departure they might fail to retain that influence or to maintain the grip on power in the long term. Local observers suggest that the haste in creating this "unity" is a clear sign of the weakness of the Western Azerbaijanis and suggests that they fear for their own future. Another indication is that Western Azerbaijanis in the upper echelons of power are seriously preparing themselves for the power struggle which will erupt as soon as Aliev departs the political scene. But even if this is true, there are many obstacles restricting the ability of Western Azerbaijanis to actively play a role in the transition of power. One of the obstacles is, as the local press suggests, deep differencies and even hostility between "Erivan Birliyi" and another Western Azerbaijani society, called "Agridag" (the Turkish name for Mount Ararat). Azerbaijani papers identify as the moving force behind "Erivan Birliyi" Ramiz Mehtiev, who heads the presidential staff. The main player in "Agridag" is Health Minister Ali Insanov. The rivalry between the two is no longer a secret in Baku. There is another sign that the alleged power struggle will turn into struggle between "clans." According to some reports, the "Alindja" society which was formed in the early 1990's in Baku by elite groups from Nakhichevan, constitutes another influential group within the top leadership. Hostilities between these two "clans" have deepened since Aliev came to power in June 1993. The Nakhichevanis claim that they played a major role in bringing Aliev to power. They complain that despite having done so, they did not receive as much attention as the Western Azerbaijanis did. One can not exclude the possibility that the rivalry between the Western Azerbaijanis and the Azerbaijanis from Nakhichevan will increase as rumors about President Aliev's health and his upcoming departure from power continue to spread. And as long as those rumors continue to spread, and as long as President Aliev's image on TV continues to worry his close allies, the fight between the "clans" will continue to intensify. As long as the struggle for power continues, it is likely to impact on other political forces and the public in Azerbaijan.

RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report

(Mirza Xazar)

The UN Report: Negative Assessment Of Azerbaijan's Economy

The United Nations Development Agency has released its annual report on economic development in Azerbaijan, which notes the nostalgia of most of the population for Soviet-era economic "stability." It is a strange assessment for a country with huge oil reserves and huge foreign investment in its oil industry. Despite years of heavy foreign investment in Azerbaijan's oil sector, according to the report, most people in Azerbaijan say they were better off when their country was part of the Soviet Union. Foreign investment now accounts for about 70 percent of all foreign capital moving into Azerbaijan, up from less than 16 percent in 1994, the report said. Independent economists and opposition too have criticized the government policy of paying attention only to the oil industry, neglecting other sectors of country's economy, which in turn is the main reason for the closure of many enterprizes and the elimination of a huge number of jobs. According to the UN report, aid from foreign governments is also a source of capital. But like many former Soviet republics, Azerbaijan is plagued by sluggish bureacracy and corruption that holds up investment, the UN report said. This assessment has been proven by cases of mismanagement of foreign humanitarian aid sent for Azerbaijani refugees. The UN assessment of the economic situation in Azerbaijan differs widely from Azerbaijani government statistics on economic development. For example, the annual UN study showed high unemployment of 69 percent among nearly a million refugees driven from the Armenian- occupied territories. The report does not mention overall unemployment among ordinary citizens of Azerbaijan, but according to an independent account, the percentage of people without jobs among non-refugees is also high. Furthermore due to the few jobs available in Azerbaijan, around 2 million Azerbaijanis were forced to leave their homeland to seek employment in Russia and other CIS states. Contrary to the Azerbaijani government's claims of economic "achievements" last year, the UN study ranked Azerbaijan 90th in standard of living among 173 countries from around the world.

RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report

(Mirza Xazar) 4 May 2001

27 April 2001

NEWS BRIEFS

Aliev And The Fight For A Successor

There is no doubt that most of the recent commentaries that have appeared in opposition newspapers about Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev's health and his designs to have his son, Ilham, succeed him as president contain some exaggerated or at least partially biased ideas. It is not surprising, since an attempt by a weak opposition to wage it's campaign against the 78-year-old president using propaganda might be considered a "natural" form of politics in Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, there is little doubt and too many indications that the fight to be Aliev's successor has begun in Azerbaijan. Rumors, reports, and commentaries on this subject are persistent. And Aliev's poor appearance on TV screens is too obvious to doubt that his health is not good -- contrary to what he and his son claim or what the official media tells the public. The Turkish TV Channel D, in a report on 26 April on the summit of Turkic-speaking countries, described the appearance of the Azerbaijani president in an unusually blatant manner: "Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev's gaunt appearance drew the attention of many people." The remark is neither diplomatic nor polite, of course. But it might serve as an indicator of a new approach of in the Turkish media and perhaps the Turkish government towards Aliev. This fact is, of course, an external nuance of the fight to be Aliev's heir that is going on in Azerbaijan. It might have and might not have an impact on the battle for succession, since not Turkey, but maybe Russia and Iran also are interested to have their own "input" into this process. But there is no doubt that the main game is being played in Baku. Aliev continues to show his determination to have Ilham succeed him as president. In his remarks at the Baku airport on 25 April before his flight to Ankara, Aliev praised Ilham's "great" speech in Strasbourg at a session of the Council of Europe. The Russian-language newspaper "Zerkalo," in a commentary on 26 April, showed confidence that the time has arrived for the anointed successor (Ilham) to appear in public. "The successor has been chosen and the only issue on agenda is to legitimize him," comments the paper. It seems "Zerkalo" is right. The time is arriving. But there are a lot of problems and difficulties in getting a transition of power to occur at the right time. Aliev's decision to have his son be the next president angered and frightened many of his close allies within his own elite from the Nakhichevan "club." Judging from reports published in the local press, a fierce struggle to neutralize potential contenders -- Ramiz Mehtiev, the president's chief of staff, Ali Insanov, the health minister, and Kamaladdin Heidarov, head of the powerful state customs committee, are in the center of this ongoing infighting. According to some observers in Baku, Aliev's decision to tab his son as the heir apparent not only prompted a fight within the Nakhichevan "clan" for succession, but alienated most of his supporters among those people from Nakhichevan. Therefore, according to the same sources, even if Aliev succeeds to have his son appointed or elected as the next president, the new president will fail to have strong support among from not only the general public, but also from his own "kinsmen" from Nakhichevan. This is considered to be the main weakness of Ilham. Therefore, a common question being asked in Baku in this regard is: How could Ilham Aliev survive in power without the support from his own "clan," which his father enjoyed for about 30 years? And the questions continue: Will Ilham be able to stay in power for a long time, as his father did? What can Azerbaijan expect from Ilham, if his father manages to bring him to power? How would the main outside players in the Caucasus -- Russia, the West, Iran, and Turkey react to such a power transition in Azerbaijan? And finally, will the opposition in Baku and some opposition leaders in exile actually accept this form of "natural" succession in Azerbaijan or not? These are the questions of the day. The answers will come and most likely rather soon.

RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report

 (Mirza Xazar)