The Voice of Mirza Xazar

Analysis and opinions published in the Azerbaijani press on the peace talks between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents, Heidar Aliev and Robert Kocharian, respectively, suggest low expectations for the talks among observers, analysts, and even the general public in Baku on the outcome of meeting in Key West.
Observers in the Azerbaijani capital point out that the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group of OSCE have failed to present new peace proposals to the sides in Florida. By presenting old and even contradictory proposals from 1997-1998, the OSCE co-chairmen admit that they do not have any fresh ideas on how to solve Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Aliev's remarks at Key West on 3 April accusing the international community of not doing enough to end the conflict can be evaluated differently. It is possible that Aliev is securing himself a safe retreat in the case that the Key West talks fail. Therefore, according to some observers, one should not expect any real breakthrough in the Key West talks.
Who will emerge the "winner" in Florida is another question discussed among Azerbaijani politicians and observers. Most local commentators agree that since the Key West talks will not produce any concrete results in resolving the Karabakh conflict, the talks can help to keep the peace process alive. But on the other hand, Aliev, Kocharian, and maybe even U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell could all come out as symbolic winners. Aliev and Kocharian will show the public how tough they are in protecting and defending their national interests, and, in doing so, will make public relations gains back home in Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Furthermore, Aliev, according to local press comments, can easily continue his efforts to have his son become his successor, but could at the same time run into trouble at home if he fails to resolve the Karabakh conflict as the plight of several hundred thousand refugees is of great concern to the public. The peace negotiations could help the Azerbaijani government distract public attention from widespread corruption and even criticism from abroad, according to local observers. Many others believe that a peace deal would mean a continuation of the poverty and corruption that plagues Azerbaijani society. One winner might be U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, who, according to some comments in the international media, will be able to show his skills as a proficient diplomat while gaining extensive and badly needed exposure by the international media. The possible winners are known. But who, if anyone, will be the losers? This question remains open in Baku. (Mirza Khazar)

10 April 2001
What Happened In Key West?

U.S. President George W. Bush's meeting with the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents on 9 April increased hopes for a peaceful solution of the Karabakh conflict in the near future. But the real outcome of the peace talks between Armenian President Robert Kocharian, Azerbaijan's President Heidar Aliev and the three Minsk Group co-chairmen in Key West is still not clear.
Contradictory and deeply different reactions to the latest round of peace talks in Florida from Armenian and Azerbaijani officials have deepened uncertainty and doubts in Azerbaijan surrounding the Key West talks. Optimistic statements by Armenian government officials, and obviously cool reactions from Azerbaijani officials are still feeding this uncertainty. More and more politicians and ordinary citizens are asking how realistic the Armenian optimism is, and if there are indeed grounds for that optimism, then how should the Azerbaijani public understand the neutral and cool statements of officials close to prezident Aliev.
There are many different explanations expressed in Azerbaijani media following Key West talks. Some politicians claim the Azerbaijani president has made serious concessions to the Armenian side and has therefore chosen to remain silent on the outcome of peace talks. Other politicians express different views. They suggest that the excitement on the Armenian side could be an attempt to discredit the Azerbaijani leadership at home and to put more pressure on Heidar Aliev to agree to a peace accord promptly.
It is hard to support or reject any of these opinions. But the main question remains open - What happened in Key West? Is there any ground for Armenian optimism? Judging from Aliev's short and nervy statement in Washington after his meeting with the U.S. president, these questions are annoying the Azerbaijani leadership too. In his response to a reporter's question - How much of progress was made during the negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh last week in Key West, Florida, Aliev responded with one sentence: " I haven't had the chance to measure how close we are now." This statement does not solve the problem. The main problem is: who will tell the Azerbaijani public what really happened in Key West? (Mirza Khazar) RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report

Relations between Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic of Iran have become even more tense in recent days. According to the local press, Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi has postponed his planned visit to Baku. At the same time, the press service of the Iranian Foreign Ministry has issued a statement reiterating Iranian claims on the status of Caspian Sea, as well as Iranian claims on parts of the sea regarded by official Baku as Azerbaijani territory.
At the same time, the press service has warned Western oil companies to stay away from disputed oilfields till the conflict is resolved. The issue was discussed at the CIS summit in Sochi last week. President Heidar Aliev met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek Russian support. According to initial reports, the Russian president proposed convening a meeting of four Caspian Sea states (Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan) to draw up a common policy on the status of Caspian Sea. But this report has proved to be unreal. In fact, Turkmenistan immediately reacted by saying that all five Caspian states should meet and decide on legal status of the Caspian Sea.
Moreover, Iranian National Security Council secretary Hassan Rouhani met with the new Russian ambassador to Iran, Aleksandr Maryasov, in Tehran on 6 August and made clear that Iran is not going to give up its initial position in this issue. "Any legal status of the Caspian Sea should be unanimously formulated by the five coastal states," said Rouhani during the meeting. The Russian diplomat in his turn pointed out that his country considers the 1921 and 1940 treaties signed by Iran and the Soviet Union as still valid.
There was no word if the two officials discussed the latest Iranian military actions in the Caspian sea. But from the Azerbaijani point of view the statements made during the meeting in Tehran have not clarified the situation, but rather complicated it. A report printed in the local newspaper "Ekho"on 7 August is also of great interest. According to the newspaper, the head of the press service of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Hamid Reza Assefi, said at a press conference in Tehran that Iran is ready to defend its sector of the Caspian. He also said that Iran will have to take measures against foreign companies which decide to continue activities in the sector claimed by Iran.
It is obvious from the statements made in Baku and from the commentaries published in the local press that the Azerbaijani government is trying at least to win Russia's support for Baku's position. And it is obvious that President Aliev's desire to have Russia support Azerbaijan in its conflict with Iran has failed. Moreover, President Aliev's overture toward Moscow may mean first, that President Aliev is desperate to find outside support for his cause against Iran, and second, it also may mean that Western oil companies and the Western governments behind these companies are reluctant to show support for either side of the conflict, prefering to remain neutral and wait for the states involved to solve the issue.
A report in "The Turkish Daily News" of 8 August suggests that so far, only the Turkish government, or Turkish public is eager to help Baku in its conlifct with Iran. "The Turkish Daily News" printed an CNN-Turk interview with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. In response to a question about a possible partnership between Turkey, Israel and Azerbaijan against Iran, Russia and Armenia, Sharon stated that he would raise the issue of cooperating with Baku during his visit to Turkey. "I will say in Ankara that we are willing to enhance relations with Azerbaijan. But, I repeat that this relationship is not against any third country," Sharon said.
It is not clear if the idea of a partnership between Turkey, Israel and Azerbaijan against Iran, Russia and Armenia is purely a journalistic hypothesis or official policcy in Ankara. But as far as it concerns Azerbaijan, this idea has been raised in the local press many times. Whether this idea reflects reality or not is another question.
(Mirza Khazar -7 August 2001)
RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report

Judging from commentaries published in the Azerbaijani press after President Heidar Aliev's return to Baku on 14 April from his trip to the United States, it appears that the Azerbaijani press and political parties rather than Azerbaijan's leadership are again raising the old question: Who is going to be Aliev's successor? Since no one has a simple answer to this question, everyone is trying to do his best in guessing. Guessing is part of political life in Azerbaijan. And guessing is also an essential part of the life of ordinary people in Azerbaijan, since most Azerbaijanis are poor citizens of a country that is wallowing in corruption while proudly declaring itself an oil-rich democratic state. The subject of the "guess" here is obvious - the incompatability of oil riches and extreme poverty, the incompatability of an extremely rich tiny minority and the extreme poverty of the vast majority.
Azerbaijan has been under a cloud of "guesses" since Heydar Aliev came to power. Like ordinary citizens, every political party has its own guess in line with that party's desires and aspirations. Every political party has its own scenario which subsequently, in a thorough analysis, turns out to be the product of wishful thinking. Wishful thinking is also part of everyday life in Azerbaijan.
The circle of candidates to replace Heidar Aliev when he departs from power is narrowing. At present we have a circle with two personalities in it: Aliev's son Ilham and his chief of staff Ramiz Mehdiev, according to the local press. The opposition newspaper "Hurriyet," in a commentary published on April 17 and entitled "The successor will be Ramiz Mehdiev," follows the old pattern of guessing. But this guessing is not of a sort to be called wishful thinking. It has some essence in it, in that it comments on the latest events within Heidar Aliev's inner circle, especially the rise of Mehdiev.
That rise started during parliament elections last year and is still continuing. The newspaper claims that if Ramiz Mehdiev continues his political offensive, a conflict between him and Ilham Aliev is unavoidable. Is it true? One can only guess. Again, Azerbaijan is under cloud of guesswork: Heidar Aliev is firmly in power, newspapers are busy commenting on possible successors, and the opposition is waiting for "X" day (Aliev's departure from power) and keeping silence. When "X" day will be is, of course, not known. Aliev has no intention of ceding power. His son declared recently that Heidar Aliev will stay in power until the year 2007. So if Ilham Aliev is right, the guessing will continue in Azerbaijan at least for a while.
(Mirza Khazar - 17 April 2001)
RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report