The Voice of Mirza Xazar

Recent commentaries and reports in the Azerbaijani press suggests that a real political struggle is underway between the so- called "clans" represented in upper echelons of power in Baku. The fight between those "clans" intensified last week when another group representing Western Azerbaijanis (Azerbaijanis from Armenia) created the new "Erivan Birliyi" (Erevan Unity) society. The founders of this new entity insist that their society has no political goals and pursues only "public goals." But in spite of this insistence, most political observers in Baku, as well as most commentators in the Azerbaijani press, believethat the main goal of the "Erivan Birliyi" is to become a sort of "center of power" in the event of Heydar Aliev's demise.
Both arguments seem to be sincere, but an attempt by Western Azerbaijanis to hold on their influence within the upper leadership in Baku suggests that after Aliev's departure they might fail to retain that influence or to maintain the grip on power in the long term. Local observers suggest that the haste in creating this "unity" is a clear sign of the weakness of the Western Azerbaijanis and suggests that they fear for their own future.
Another indication is that Western Azerbaijanis in the upper echelons of power are seriously preparing themselves for the power struggle which will erupt as soon as Aliev departs the political scene. But even if this is true, there are many obstacles restricting the ability of Western Azerbaijanis to actively play a role in the transition of power. One of the obstacles is, as the local press suggests, deep differencies and even hostility between "Erivan Birliyi" and another Western Azerbaijani society, called "Agridag" (the Turkish name for Mount Ararat).
Azerbaijani papers identify as the moving force behind "Erivan Birliyi" Ramiz Mehtiev, who heads the presidential staff. The main player in "Agridag" is Health Minister Ali Insanov. The rivalry between the two is no longer a secret in Baku.
There is another sign that the alleged power struggle will turn into struggle between "clans." According to some reports, the "Alindja" society which was formed in the early 1990's in Baku by elite groups from Nakhichevan, constitutes another influential group within the top leadership. Hostilities between these two "clans" have deepened since Aliev came to power in June 1993. The Nakhichevanis claim that they played a major role in bringing Aliev to power. They complain that despite having done so, they did not receive as much attention as the Western Azerbaijanis did.
One can not exclude the possibility that the rivalry between the Western Azerbaijanis and the Azerbaijanis from Nakhichevan will increase as rumors about President Aliev's health and his upcoming departure from power continue to spread. And as long as those rumors continue to spread, and as long as President Aliev's image on TV continues to worry his close allies, the fight between the "clans" will continue to intensify. As long as the struggle for power continues, it is likely to impact on other political forces and the public in Azerbaijan.
(Mirza Khazar - 22 May 2001 )

RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report

There is no doubt that most of the recent commentaries that have appeared in opposition newspapers about Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev's health and his designs to have his son, Ilham, succeed him as president contain some exaggerated or at least partially biased ideas.
It is not surprising, since an attempt by a weak opposition to wage it's campaign against the 78-year-old president using propaganda might be considered a "natural" form of politics in Azerbaijan.
Nevertheless, there is little doubt and too many indications that the fight to be Aliev's successor has begun in Azerbaijan. Rumors, reports, and commentaries on this subject are persistent. And Aliev's poor appearance on TV screens is too obvious to doubt that his health is not good -- contrary to what he and his son claim or what the official media tells the public. The Turkish TV Channel D, in a report on 26 April on the summit of Turkic-speaking countries, described the appearance of the Azerbaijani president in an unusually blatant manner: "Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev's gaunt appearance drew the attention of many people."
The remark is neither diplomatic nor polite, of course. But it might serve as an indicator of a new approach of in the Turkish media and perhaps the Turkish government towards Aliev. This fact is, of course, an external nuance of the fight to be Aliev's heir that is going on in Azerbaijan. It might have and might not have an impact on the battle for succession, since not Turkey, but maybe Russia and Iran also are interested to have their own "input" into this process. But there is no doubt that the main game is being played in Baku.
Aliev continues to show his determination to have Ilham succeed him as president. In his remarks at the Baku airport on 25 April before his flight to Ankara, Aliev praised Ilham's "great" speech in Strasbourg at a session of the Council of Europe. The Russian-language newspaper "Zerkalo," in a commentary on 26 April, showed confidence that the time has arrived for the anointed successor (Ilham) to appear in public. "The successor has been chosen and the only issue on agenda is to legitimize him," comments the paper.
It seems "Zerkalo" is right. The time is arriving. But there are a lot of problems and difficulties in getting a transition of power to occur at the right time. Aliev's decision to have his son be the next president angered and frightened many of his close allies within his own elite from the Nakhichevan "club." Judging from reports published in the local press, a fierce struggle to neutralize potential contenders -- Ramiz Mehtiev, the president's chief of staff, Ali Insanov, the health minister, and Kamaladdin Heidarov, head of the powerful state customs committee, are in the center of this ongoing infighting. According to some observers in Baku, Aliev's decision to tab his son as the heir apparent not only prompted a fight within the Nakhichevan "clan" for succession, but alienated most of his supporters among those people from Nakhichevan. Therefore, according to the same sources, even if Aliev succeeds to have his son appointed or elected as the next president, the new president will fail to have strong support among from not only the general public, but also from his own "kinsmen" from Nakhichevan.
This is considered to be the main weakness of Ilham. Therefore, a common question being asked in Baku in this regard is: How could Ilham Aliev survive in power without the support from his own "clan," which his father enjoyed for about 30 years? And the questions continue: Will Ilham be able to stay in power for a long time, as his father did? What can Azerbaijan expect from Ilham, if his father manages to bring him to power? How would the main outside players in the Caucasus -- Russia, the West, Iran, and Turkey react to such a power transition in Azerbaijan? And finally, will the opposition in Baku and some opposition leaders in exile actually accept this form of "natural" succession in Azerbaijan or not? These are the questions of the day. The answers will come and most likely rather soon.
(Mirza Khazar - 27 April 2001)
RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report

An attempt by several hundred supporters of the Azerbaijan Democratic Party to hold a protest demonstration in the center of Baku on 21 April was the first opposition protest action since the Karabakh war invalids were forced to stop a month-long hunger- strike in February. Police resorted to brute force to prevent the ADP supporters from holding an unauthorized rally to demand the release of political prisoners, but that does not detract from the implications of the action for the political situation in Azerbaijan.
Isa Gambar, head of the main opposition Musavat party, expressed support for the ADP's protest action in an interview published in the newspaper "Azadliq" on April 24. Gambar added that the Musavat party too is preparing for mass actions of protest. Azerbaijan Democratic Party chairman Rasul Quliev in his interview with "Hurriyyet" on April 24, suggested that consecutive protest rallies will force the present government to resign. One can interpret this suggestion as wishful thinking. But it would be a mistake either to overestimate the strength of the opposition, mainly its ability to unite or to underestimate President Heydar Aliev's ability to deal with such a development.
But we should not forget that the situation in which Heydar Aliev is forced to operate today is different from similar situations in the past. Heydar Aliev is now 78 and he is not physically fit. He is in the middle of crucial peace talks with Armenia, and it is not clear what he will sign and how the public and political parties in Azerbaijan will react. He did not manage to convince the main players in Caucasus to support his son, Ilham as his successor. His foreign policy towards Turkey, Iran, Russia and the West is not ideal at the moment. Tensions are mounting between Azerbaijan and Iran. Aliev's recent attempts to restore "fraternal" relations with Russia will demand from him and from Azerbaijan as a state a very high price. Aliev's attempt (in an effort to strengthen his own position) to play a very complicated and contradictory game between Russia and the United States, and his desire to win this game, does not seem to be a very sophisticated and successful policy.
Aliev's relations with Turkey are an obvious example of the failure of such a "twisted policy." Some observers believe that President Aliev is intentionally creating problems in relations with Turkey in order to gain Russian "kindness." This opinion might prove to be wrong or right. Heydar Aliev will leave for Ankara on April 25 to attend a summit of heads of states of Turkic speaking countries in Istanbul the following day. Not the summit as such, but relations between the Aliev leadership and Ankara will dominate his meetings with Turkish officials. Relations between two countries are at the worst point since Suleyman Demirel left office as President of Turkey a year ago. It is not only official Baku that is to blame for the worsening of relations with Ankara. The failure of the Turkish side to accept Turcophone countries as equal partners is also partly to blame for the present coolness in relations with Baku.
The Azerbaijani press is unanimous that Aliev will face tough questions in Ankara during his visit there. But it is possible that the Turkish side might also face such tough questions from Azerbaijani president. Aliev with his rich political experience managed to overcome all obstacles and survive in the past 30 years. Will he at this crucial moment of his career be able to overcome not only external pressures but the infighting expected to erupt within his immediate circle in the near future over who is best qualified to succeed him as president?
(Mirza Khazar - 24 April 2001)
RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report