The Voice of Mirza Xazar

Shahin Abbasov: 8/28/08

The mid-August bombing of a Baku mosque is heightening an already anxious mood in Azerbaijan. Reflecting the government’s alarm over the terrorist incident, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is personally leading the ongoing investigation. Some opposition politicians have openly wondered whether Russia is trying to stir instability in Azerbaijan in order to extend the Kremlin’s influence in the Caucasus.

The August 17 attack at the Abu-Bekr mosque left two dead and 19 wounded, including the mosque’s imam, Gamet Suleimanov. About 200 people were on the mosque premises for evening prayers when an assailant tossed at least one grenade through a window and fled the scene. The attack came 10 days after the start of Russia’s incursion into neighboring Georgia, a conflict sparked by the Georgian attempt to bring the separatist region of South Ossetia back under Tbilisi’s control. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Georgian-Russian conflict has disrupted the westward flow of Azerbaijani oil and gas, unsettling officials in Baku, and prompting questions about the Kremlin’s energy intentions in the Caspian Basin. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

A second explosion August 22 at a small power sub-station in Baku’s Khatai District frayed nerves further. The blast left two workers dead and three injured. Investigators are probing a connection between the mosque attack and the power station explosion. Authorities have proclaimed both incidents to be terrorist acts.

The Abu-Bekr mosque is one of the most highly attended places of worship in Azerbaijan, drawing up to 8,000 believers for Friday prayers. It is known for attracting conservative Muslims, and has in the past drawn scrutiny from Ministry of National Security officials for suspected ties to radicals. Suleimanov, the imam, adamantly denies any connection to radical Islam.

Suleimanov spent two days in a Baku hospital recovering from his wounds. In an August 25 interview with EurasiaNet, he said he could think of no reason why someone would target his mosque. “Only an investigation can determine the reasons,” Suleimanov said. He did not exclude the possibility that the incident was the work of “external forces.”

“Anything is possible,” he added.

Authorities’ initial attention appears focused on religious radicals. One individual, identified as Emin Rasulov, has been arrested in connection with the mosque blast investigation. A search of his Baku apartment purportedly turned up printed materials that were deemed to incite “national, social and religious enmity,” the Azeri Press Agency news service reported. While charged with possession of seditious materials, no charges have been brought against him for alleged involvement in the explosions. On August 27, Azerbaijani officials circulated composite sketches of two individuals – a man and a women, both seeming to be in their twenties – who are suspected of involvement in the mosque incident.

Political experts in Baku have generally avoided speculation about the motives and culprits of both explosions. But, Ilgar Ibrahimoglu, a charismatic imam of another popular mosque in Baku, believes that the attacks have to be viewed within the broad context of political, social and economic developments throughout the Caucasus. “This crime is not typical for Azerbaijani society. It is not about Azerbaijani mentality to solve conflicts by means of grenade explosions, moreover at a mosque,” he said on August 18.

The government has remained tightlipped about the incidents. With Azerbaijan holding a presidential election this fall – one that Aliyev should win easily – the government wants to maintain an aura of stability and rising prosperity.

The main opposition parties have already announced they will be boycotting the election, voicing doubts that it will be free and fair. Nevertheless, they have sought to politically capitalize on the building uncertainty. The opposition Musavat party issued a statement that ominously suggested Russia was involved in the explosions, motivated by an apparent desire to reassert its political influence over Baku. The statement attributed the recent violent acts on “forces that want to see chaos, instability, confrontation and fear in the South Caucasus.”

“Their aim is the escalation of tension in Azerbaijan and the confrontation [of society] along religious lines,” the statement continued. “It cannot be excluded that Azerbaijan’s northern neighbor [Russia] is involved in these events.”

Amid the prevailing uncertainty, officials are taking precautions against further terrorist incidents. Much of their attention is focused on enhancing the security of the country’s energy infrastructure. On August 20 the government issued an order titled “On additional measures to reinforce security of the pipelines, bridges, power stations and main electricity lines in Azerbaijan.” In addition, police have enhanced security measures at Baku’s three synagogues.

Editor’s Note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent based in Baku

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav082808_pr.shtml

On August 25, 2008 the Federal Assembly of Russia unanimously voted to urge President Medvedev to recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. On the following day, President Medvedev agreed, and signed a decree in which Russia officially recognized the two entities.

Georgia has rejected Russia's move. Deputy Foreign Minister of Georgia, Giga Bokeria said: "This is an unconcealed annexation of these territories, which are a part of Georgia."

On August 26, 2008 Russian President Medvedev has instructed the foreign ministry to open talks with Abkhazia and South Ossetia on establishing diplomatic relations with Russia.

President Medvedev issued a statement saying: "This was not an easy choice to make, but it is the sole chance of saving people's lives" and calling on other countries to follow suit. In a televised address, he echoed the language of genocide used by Western leaders to describe Serbian attacks on Kosovo Albanians in 1999. Medvedev described Georgia in much the same way as Western leaders had once described Serbia.

Later, on August 26, a spokesman for the Palestinian group Hamas welcomed the diplomatic recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He said that there were similarities between the situations of the Abkhazian and South Ossetian people, and the Palestinian people. The spokesman said: "We, Palestinians, also struggle to attain recognition for our rights, the main of which is the right to be an independent state. We hope that the decision of Moscow becomes the beginning of recognition of peoples which combat for freedom and justice."

On August 28, Vasily Dolgolyov, the Belarusian Ambassador to Russia said that Belarus would in the next day or two recognise the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The Russia's move was also supported by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, with China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan issuing a joint statement vouching support for Russia's "active role" in resolving the conflict.

So far, no other recognized state has recognized them; however there have been intensive international disapprovals.

The unilateral recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia was met by much disapproval from some members of the international community and other members of the United Nations, the NATO, the OSCE, and the European Council.

The United States President George W. Bush condemned the actions taken by the Russian authorities and called on them to reconsider their irresponsible decision. President Bush also said "the two areas are within the internationally recognized borders of Georgia, and they must remain so."

The UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband accused Russian President Dmitry Medvedev of "inflaming" the crisis. He also called on Russia to stand by International Law as the basis for resolving this crisis and stated that he will assemble the "widest possible coalition against Russian aggression."

Eastern European capitals lined up in support of Georgia, with the Czech Republic in a statement calling Russia's action an attack on the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia.

The European Union leaders have condemned Russia's decision to recognise the Georgian breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, while Georgian rebels compared the move to the creation of Republic of Kosovo earlier this year.

The EU has tried to avoid parallels between Georgia separatism and the newly-created state of Kosovo in the past, saying Kosovo is "unique" despite the fact that 20 out of 27 EU states recognised its unilateral declaration of independence in February without an EU mandate.

Authorities in Abkhazia were happy to make the link, saying: "We use the same arguments as those used by the West with regard to Kosovo: All other possible means were exhausted. There was no possible way to reconcile with Georgia. This is purely a continuation of the Kosovo precedent. Of course some Western leaders will say that there is no link between Kosovo and Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but what can they say without contradicting themselves about what they said regarding Kosovo?"

The Ambassador of Russia to the NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, replied to accusations that Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is "irreversible", but called upon the NATO countries to withdraw and review their recognitions of independent Kosovo and subsequently act on the premise that this is the new political reality. He assures, moreover that any NATO attack on Russia-supported regions would mean "a declaration of war on Russia".

In relation to the current event in Georgia, in Moldavia, Moldovan rebels called for independence of the breakaway territory of Transnistria.

Currently, 15 EU states are confronted with secessionism, including Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia, and the UK, among others.

Question is: who is next?

Ivan Simic

Belgrade, Serbia

On August 25, 2008 the Federal Assembly of Russia unanimously voted to urge President Medvedev to recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. On the following day, President Medvedev agreed, and signed a decree in which Russia officially recognized the two entities.

Georgia has rejected Russia's move. Deputy Foreign Minister of Georgia, Giga Bokeria said: "This is an unconcealed annexation of these territories, which are a part of Georgia."

On August 26, 2008 Russian President Medvedev has instructed the foreign ministry to open talks with Abkhazia and South Ossetia on establishing diplomatic relations with Russia.

President Medvedev issued a statement saying: "This was not an easy choice to make, but it is the sole chance of saving people's lives" and calling on other countries to follow suit. In a televised address, he echoed the language of genocide used by Western leaders to describe Serbian attacks on Kosovo Albanians in 1999. Medvedev described Georgia in much the same way as Western leaders had once described Serbia.

Later, on August 26, a spokesman for the Palestinian group Hamas welcomed the diplomatic recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He said that there were similarities between the situations of the Abkhazian and South Ossetian people, and the Palestinian people. The spokesman said: "We, Palestinians, also struggle to attain recognition for our rights, the main of which is the right to be an independent state. We hope that the decision of Moscow becomes the beginning of recognition of peoples which combat for freedom and justice."

On August 28, Vasily Dolgolyov, the Belarusian Ambassador to Russia said that Belarus would in the next day or two recognise the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The Russia's move was also supported by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, with China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan issuing a joint statement vouching support for Russia's "active role" in resolving the conflict.

So far, no other recognized state has recognized them; however there have been intensive international disapprovals.

The unilateral recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia was met by much disapproval from some members of the international community and other members of the United Nations, the NATO, the OSCE, and the European Council.

The United States President George W. Bush condemned the actions taken by the Russian authorities and called on them to reconsider their irresponsible decision. President Bush also said "the two areas are within the internationally recognized borders of Georgia, and they must remain so."

The UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband accused Russian President Dmitry Medvedev of "inflaming" the crisis. He also called on Russia to stand by International Law as the basis for resolving this crisis and stated that he will assemble the "widest possible coalition against Russian aggression."

Eastern European capitals lined up in support of Georgia, with the Czech Republic in a statement calling Russia's action an attack on the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia.

The European Union leaders have condemned Russia's decision to recognise the Georgian breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, while Georgian rebels compared the move to the creation of Republic of Kosovo earlier this year.

The EU has tried to avoid parallels between Georgia separatism and the newly-created state of Kosovo in the past, saying Kosovo is "unique" despite the fact that 20 out of 27 EU states recognised its unilateral declaration of independence in February without an EU mandate.

Authorities in Abkhazia were happy to make the link, saying: "We use the same arguments as those used by the West with regard to Kosovo: All other possible means were exhausted. There was no possible way to reconcile with Georgia. This is purely a continuation of the Kosovo precedent. Of course some Western leaders will say that there is no link between Kosovo and Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but what can they say without contradicting themselves about what they said regarding Kosovo?"

The Ambassador of Russia to the NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, replied to accusations that Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is "irreversible", but called upon the NATO countries to withdraw and review their recognitions of independent Kosovo and subsequently act on the premise that this is the new political reality. He assures, moreover that any NATO attack on Russia-supported regions would mean "a declaration of war on Russia".

In relation to the current event in Georgia, in Moldavia, Moldovan rebels called for independence of the breakaway territory of Transnistria.

Currently, 15 EU states are confronted with secessionism, including Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia, and the UK, among others.

Question is: who is next?

Ivan Simic

Belgrade, Serbia