The Voice of Mirza Xazar

 

Rovshan Ismayilov 7/03/07

 

As Azerbaijan’s military spending reaches $1 billion, the country’s leadership has revived rhetoric about using force to resolve the 19-year Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia. But for all the war worries sparked by bellicose statements, experts in Baku stress that they have more to do with diplomatic maneuvering and domestic politics than an actual desire to trade talks for tanks.

Over the past month, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly indicated that Baku’s patience with years of start-and-stop negotiations is running thin. The last such encounter, a June 10 tête - à - tête with Armenian President Robert Kocharian in St. Petersburg, did nothing to move peace talks forward. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. News agencies have reported Aliyev as attributing the failure of the talks to "Armenia’s unconstructive and insincere position."

Instead, a new tact is being taken – at least in words. "We are close to the liberation of Karabakh. We are powerful enough to liberate our lands," Aliyev said during a July 2 police academy graduation ceremony in Baku. "Azerbaijan is the [most] powerful country in the region," he went on to say, APA news agency reported. "No one wants a new war again, [but] Azerbaijan is prepared [for] any military operations any time. It would be better if Armenia understands it and pull[s] out the troops from our territories."

Speaking at a Baku reception on June 25, Army Day, Defense Minister Safar Abiyev warned that if Armenia failed to do so, "[the] Azerbaijani Army will do it itself."

In Armenia, many interpret these statements as a sign that Azerbaijan is ready to use force to regain control of the disputed region and seven bordering territories occupied by ethnic Armenian troops. Azerbaijan’s first National Security Concept, signed by Aliyev on May 24, emphasizes a need to improve the country’s defensive capabilities in order to better respond to separatism and regional conflicts.

In Azerbaijan, however, some local observers contend that Aliyev’s remarks have less to do with a rumbling toward war, and more to do with a strategic game plan.

The ability to outspend Armenia in an arms race is one of the few instruments that Baku could use to pressure Yerevan into making diplomatic concessions, specifically concerning Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, commented independent political analyst Rasim Musabekov. "And Aliyev is using this trump card vocally," he said. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Much of Baku’s current military spending, made possible by booming energy revenues, is related to reforms to align the Azerbaijani military more closely with North Atlantic Treaty Organization standards by the end of 2007. Speaking on June 25, Defense Minister Abiyev detailed programs ranging from the modernization of naval vessels to the creation of a training school for army sergeants. Azerbaijan also plans to start manufacturing its own military materiel, with trial samples expected by the end of 2007.

"[H]is statements mean that if somebody hopes that Azerbaijan will agree with the status quo that was imposed by force, they have to take into consideration current realities, too," said Musabekov, referring to Azerbaijan’s de facto loss of Nagorno-Karabakh to separatists and Armenian forces in 1994. "Azerbaijan has many more resources to build-up its military than does Armenia."

One military expert, however, notes that the Azerbaijani build-up still does not give it a clear-cut superiority over Armenian forces. Hints about use of force have more to do with politics, commented Uzeir Jafarov. As occurred during the 2005 parliamentary election campaign, "[w]e will hear a lot of similar statements closer to the 2008 presidential elections," said Jafarov. No definitive signs exist that "would prove Azerbaijan is really preparing for war."

Meanwhile, a "good cop-bad cop" scenario appears to be emerging. A so-called "coordinated" difference on Karabakh has long existed between Azerbaijan’s defense and foreign ministries. As the Defense Ministry talks about the military’s willingness to resolve the 19-year conflict by force, the Foreign Ministry insists on the need to continue talks with Armenia.

A recent surprise mission to Armenia and Karabakh underlines that difference. Three days before Aliyev’s speech to police graduates, Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Polad Bulbuloglu co-headed a cultural delegation that traveled to Karabakh to meet with de facto President Arkady Ghukassian and to visit the town of Shushi, which holds strong cultural symbolism for ethnic Azeris. The one-day trip also included a meeting with Armenian President Robert Kocharian in Yerevan. Armenia’s ambassador to Russia, Armen Smbatian, was the other co-leader of the delegation.

According to Ambassador Bulbuloglu, "more productive and long-lasting mutual visits between the two countries" are intended, the Azerbaijani news agency APA reported.

Aliyev also met the delegation in Baku. Media outlets, however, have said little about his comments. The pro-government Trend news agency quoted Aliyev as telling the delegation that the Karabakh conflict "could only be solved on the basis of the principles of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and inviolability of borders, with granting a high level of self-governance to Nagorno-Karabakh."

For now, at least officially, that language of diplomacy is the only one Yerevan maintains it can hear. According to local media reports, Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said at a July 2 press conference in Yerevan that "Ilham Aliyev rattles the saber for internal use."

Editor’s Note: Rovshan Ismayilov is a freelance journalist based in Baku.

Posted July 3, 2007 © Eurasianet
http://www.eurasianet.org

 

Ethnic minority builds ties with Iran while declaring loyalty to government in Baku By Idrak Abbasov in Lenkoran (CRS No. 400, 12-July-07) Immediately you enter the town of Lenkoran, you are overwhelmed by the delicious aroma of “levengi”, a meat dish prepared in small bakeries along the highway. Few travellers will be able to drive by and resist the temptation to try this local delicacy. “Anyone who hasn’t tasted levengi and drunk tea with locally-grown lemon has never really been in Lenkoran,” said Yunis Agayev, 57, who was travelling with this IWPR contributor. Levengi is the national dish of the Talysh, an ethnic minority living in Azerbaijan’s southeastern region close to the border with Iran. Despite their growing links with this southern neighbour, they are keen to stress that they are loyal Azerbaijani citizens. A 27-year-old “chaichi”, the owner of a local chaikhana or tea house, confesses that it has been a long time since he treated his guests to Lenkoran’s own tea rather than the imported Ceylonese product. The area used to grow a lot of tea, but production shrank drastically after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The town’s main square has recently been given a facelift and now boasts new buildings and a statue of former Azerbaijani president Heidar Aliev. Not everyone is happy with the new look. “We used to have oaks more than a hundred years old on this square,” lamented local resident Sahib, 67. “Even in the hottest summer weather, we could rest in their cool shade. They’ve been felled and dwarf palms and fir trees have been planted in their place. Just imagine, fir trees in subtropical Lenkoran!” Life here is little different to other parts of Azerbaijan. Most people are struggling to make ends meet, a minority are thriving – in this case mainly because of cross-border trade with Iran – while the authorities insist everything is getting better. “The state has been doing its utmost to improve life for the population,” said Shadadat Bagirov, who heads the Lenkoran district tax office. “For instance, it’s been equipping the town with modern amenities, laying out parks, building sports centres and bridges, and repairing the roads.” Azerbaijan’s southern districts of Lenkoran, Lerik, Astara and Masalli are populated largely by the Talysh, the country’s fourth-largest ethnic minority. According to the 1999 census, there were 76,800 Talysh in Azerbaijan. However, human rights campaigner Atakhan Abilov, an ethnic Talysh, claims the true number is around 320,000. One reason the census figure is low is that in the Soviet period, many Talysh recorded their “nationality” or ethnicity as Azerbaijani in their passports so as to advance their careers. The passports now issued in Azerbaijan do not indicate ethnic origin. There are also Talysh in neighbouring parts of Iran, and the Talysh language is closer to Persian than to Azerbaijani. Lenkoran resident Agali Mirkazimov, 35, said Talysh is taught in secondary schools in this part of Azerbaijan, but there is a shortage of textbooks and specialists. “There are no Talysh newspapers and television channels locally,” he said. “There’s only a 15-minute programme broadcast by the state radio station. “Still, no one here is demanding anything. If it weren’t for the Karabakh conflict, we might make our demands hear. At present, however, that would only play into the hands of our enemies, who would say the rights of minorities in Azerbaijan are being violated. “We can do without a radio station and newspapers, we just want to have our lands liberated,” he said, referring to Armenian control of Nagorny Karabakh and adjacent territories in Azerbaijan. The relationship with Iran is a sensitive topic in this border region, given the sometimes difficult relationship between Baku and Tehran. These sensitivities may have been behind the controversial arrest of two Talysh journalists earlier this year. In February, the authorities detained Novruzali Mamedov, a well-known figure who is editor-in-chief of the Tolyshi Sedo (Voice of the Talysh) newspaper, together with his deputy Elman Guliyev. The two men are accused of treason. Azerbaijan’s national security ministry has made no public comment on the case, but unofficial sources say that Mamedov and Guliyev are being accused of maintaining secret contacts with the Iranian security services. In late June, Hilal Mamedov, who heads the newly-created Committee to Protect the Rights of Novruzali Mamedov and Elman Guliyev, appealed to foreign diplomats to intervene to help the two men, who he said were the victims of a campaign against minorities. Mamedov, who was one of the leaders of the unregistered Talysh People’s Party and participated in a short-lived Talysh nationalist movement in 1993, says the arrests are all part of Azerbaijan’s behind-the-scenes intrigues with Iran. A straw poll of 30 people in Lenkoran found no one who thought there was a problem of ethnic discrimination against the Talysh. “Officials get rich here just as they do in Baku,” said Yusif Shahbazov, 45. “There are a lot of senior officials and wealthy people among the Talysh, for example Sheikh-ul-Islam Allahshukur Pashazade, the religious leader of [Azerbaijan’s] Muslims. There are many Talysh in the interior, national security and defence ministries as well as in the presidential administration.” Turning to the detention of Mamedov and Guliyev, he said, “If these two men have been arrested, it means they really have broken the law, and their ethnic origin has nothing to do with it.” Lenkoran has the reputation of being a hotbed for a radical strand of Shia Islam, the dominant religion here as in Azerbaijan as a whole. But that is not the impression you get on the streets - there are few men with beards, or women in Iranian-style headscarves. Older women wear traditional long dresses and headscarves, but young women dress in modern European fashions. “It used to be that only Russian women would wear trousers and miniskirts here. Now our girls have surpassed even the Parisian women,” complained Ali Sadygov, 32, a devout Muslim. “Sure, everyone wants to dress well. But they shouldn’t dress in a shameful way and lose their dignity as Muslim women.” A local religious leader, Hojjat-ul-Islam Sheikh Asif, agreed that Iran does have an influence here when it comes to matters of faith. “Our ayatollah is in Iran, just as the Catholics’ spiritual leader has his seat in Rome,” he said. “If there’s some disagreement between Baku and Iran on religious matters, we will obey our spiritual mentors in Iran.” The connection with Iran is economic as well as religious. Under an agreement between their governments, Iranian and Azerbaijani nationals living close to the frontier do not have to get visas to travel up to 45 kilometers inside the neighbouring state. Visiting the a border checkpoint at Astara, this IWPR correspondent saw that most of the goods imported from Iran consisted of food products such as butter, eggs, potatoes, sugar and rice, while western clothes, audio and video equipment were going the other way. On both sides of the border, people are increasingly worried at the prospect of a military confrontation involving the United States and Britain against Iran because of the latter’s nuclear programme. “No country will get the better of Iran,” said Ali Mansuper, 42, an ethnic Azerbaijani from Iran. “Those who want a war in Iran should first sort out the problems in Afghanistan.” Idrak Abbasov is a correspondent with Aina newspaper in Baku. This article forms part of IWPR’s EU-funded Cross-Caucasus Journalism Network project.

Reporters Without Borders today urged the judicial authorities to reconsider the 30-month prison sentences imposed on journalists Yashar Agazadeh and Rovshan Kabirli of the daily Mukhalifat when their appeal hearing begins tomorrow. Agazadeh has been on hunger strike in prison against their conviction on 20 May of libelling the president’s uncle, Djalal Aliev, in an article linking him to possible corruption. “The laws must be amended as a matter of urgency so that journalists are no longer sentenced to jail terms that are out of all proportion to the offence,” the press freedom organisation said. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New crackdown on opposition media Reporters Without Borders today strongly denounced a recent wave of restrictions and repression targeting Azerbaijan’s independent media and urged the authorities to restore press freedom. It said it was “very concerned” about yesterday’s assertion by the head of President Ilham Aliev’s office, Ramiz Mehdiyev, that there were normal democratic freedoms in the country and said it hoped he would quickly change his attitude and take all steps to ensure freedom of expression. “It is unthinkable that such a senior official can publicly say this when everyday facts show that the media is under pressure.” Ali Hasanov, another top Aliev aide, said while attending a conference on democracy in societies in transition yesterday that “we have an independent media and freedom of expression here. The opinion of some NGOs that there are pressures on the media in Azerbaijan is just an opinion.” He said the recent imprisonment of several journalists was justified and that growing international criticism of the government’s actions was groundless. The offices of two opposition newspapers, the Russian-language Realny Azerbaijan and the Azeri-language Gundalik Azerbaijan, were shut down by the ministry of emergency situations on 20 May, officially because of security problems with the electrical system and building-evacuation procedure. But Uzeyir Jafarov, editor of Realny Azebaijan, said it was really because of what the papers had printed. Their offices were searched and computers seized. Jafarov, who was beaten up in April after attending a controversial trial, said today it was “impossible to live and work” in Azerbaijan. He said he and five other journalists would try to make democratic countries aware of what was going on by applying for political asylum in Austria, Canada, Finland and Norway. The founder of the two papers, Eynulla Fatullayev, was imprisoned in Bayil after being sentenced on 20 April to two and a half years for supposed libel. He may now be convicted of “incitement to terrorism” under article 214 of the criminal code, though his lawyer said he had not yet been interrogated about this. His family received an anonymous phone call on 17 May warning that he would be killed if he continued to take the same positions after he was released. Two journalists of the daily Mukhalifat, Rovshan Karbili and Yashar Agazade, were also each sentenced to two and half years in prison on 20 May for an article accusing members of President Aliev’s family of corruption. Miklos Haraszti, the media freedom representative of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), yesterday deplored the crackdown and called on the government to drop all the prosecutions. Reporters Without Borders defends imprisoned journalists and press freedom throughout the world. It has nine national sections (Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland). It has representatives in Bangkok, London, New York, Tokyo and Washington. And it has more than 120 correspondents worldwide.