The Voice of Mirza Xazar

Relations between Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic of Iran have become even more tense in recent days. According to the local press, Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi has postponed his planned visit to Baku. At the same time, the press service of the Iranian Foreign Ministry has issued a statement reiterating Iranian claims on the status of Caspian Sea, as well as Iranian claims on parts of the sea regarded by official Baku as Azerbaijani territory.
At the same time, the press service has warned Western oil companies to stay away from disputed oilfields till the conflict is resolved. The issue was discussed at the CIS summit in Sochi last week. President Heidar Aliev met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek Russian support. According to initial reports, the Russian president proposed convening a meeting of four Caspian Sea states (Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan) to draw up a common policy on the status of Caspian Sea. But this report has proved to be unreal. In fact, Turkmenistan immediately reacted by saying that all five Caspian states should meet and decide on legal status of the Caspian Sea.
Moreover, Iranian National Security Council secretary Hassan Rouhani met with the new Russian ambassador to Iran, Aleksandr Maryasov, in Tehran on 6 August and made clear that Iran is not going to give up its initial position in this issue. "Any legal status of the Caspian Sea should be unanimously formulated by the five coastal states," said Rouhani during the meeting. The Russian diplomat in his turn pointed out that his country considers the 1921 and 1940 treaties signed by Iran and the Soviet Union as still valid.
There was no word if the two officials discussed the latest Iranian military actions in the Caspian sea. But from the Azerbaijani point of view the statements made during the meeting in Tehran have not clarified the situation, but rather complicated it. A report printed in the local newspaper "Ekho"on 7 August is also of great interest. According to the newspaper, the head of the press service of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Hamid Reza Assefi, said at a press conference in Tehran that Iran is ready to defend its sector of the Caspian. He also said that Iran will have to take measures against foreign companies which decide to continue activities in the sector claimed by Iran.
It is obvious from the statements made in Baku and from the commentaries published in the local press that the Azerbaijani government is trying at least to win Russia's support for Baku's position. And it is obvious that President Aliev's desire to have Russia support Azerbaijan in its conflict with Iran has failed. Moreover, President Aliev's overture toward Moscow may mean first, that President Aliev is desperate to find outside support for his cause against Iran, and second, it also may mean that Western oil companies and the Western governments behind these companies are reluctant to show support for either side of the conflict, prefering to remain neutral and wait for the states involved to solve the issue.
A report in "The Turkish Daily News" of 8 August suggests that so far, only the Turkish government, or Turkish public is eager to help Baku in its conlifct with Iran. "The Turkish Daily News" printed an CNN-Turk interview with Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. In response to a question about a possible partnership between Turkey, Israel and Azerbaijan against Iran, Russia and Armenia, Sharon stated that he would raise the issue of cooperating with Baku during his visit to Turkey. "I will say in Ankara that we are willing to enhance relations with Azerbaijan. But, I repeat that this relationship is not against any third country," Sharon said.
It is not clear if the idea of a partnership between Turkey, Israel and Azerbaijan against Iran, Russia and Armenia is purely a journalistic hypothesis or official policcy in Ankara. But as far as it concerns Azerbaijan, this idea has been raised in the local press many times. Whether this idea reflects reality or not is another question.
(Mirza Khazar -7 August 2001)
RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report

Judging from commentaries published in the Azerbaijani press after President Heidar Aliev's return to Baku on 14 April from his trip to the United States, it appears that the Azerbaijani press and political parties rather than Azerbaijan's leadership are again raising the old question: Who is going to be Aliev's successor? Since no one has a simple answer to this question, everyone is trying to do his best in guessing. Guessing is part of political life in Azerbaijan. And guessing is also an essential part of the life of ordinary people in Azerbaijan, since most Azerbaijanis are poor citizens of a country that is wallowing in corruption while proudly declaring itself an oil-rich democratic state. The subject of the "guess" here is obvious - the incompatability of oil riches and extreme poverty, the incompatability of an extremely rich tiny minority and the extreme poverty of the vast majority.
Azerbaijan has been under a cloud of "guesses" since Heydar Aliev came to power. Like ordinary citizens, every political party has its own guess in line with that party's desires and aspirations. Every political party has its own scenario which subsequently, in a thorough analysis, turns out to be the product of wishful thinking. Wishful thinking is also part of everyday life in Azerbaijan.
The circle of candidates to replace Heidar Aliev when he departs from power is narrowing. At present we have a circle with two personalities in it: Aliev's son Ilham and his chief of staff Ramiz Mehdiev, according to the local press. The opposition newspaper "Hurriyet," in a commentary published on April 17 and entitled "The successor will be Ramiz Mehdiev," follows the old pattern of guessing. But this guessing is not of a sort to be called wishful thinking. It has some essence in it, in that it comments on the latest events within Heidar Aliev's inner circle, especially the rise of Mehdiev.
That rise started during parliament elections last year and is still continuing. The newspaper claims that if Ramiz Mehdiev continues his political offensive, a conflict between him and Ilham Aliev is unavoidable. Is it true? One can only guess. Again, Azerbaijan is under cloud of guesswork: Heidar Aliev is firmly in power, newspapers are busy commenting on possible successors, and the opposition is waiting for "X" day (Aliev's departure from power) and keeping silence. When "X" day will be is, of course, not known. Aliev has no intention of ceding power. His son declared recently that Heidar Aliev will stay in power until the year 2007. So if Ilham Aliev is right, the guessing will continue in Azerbaijan at least for a while.
(Mirza Khazar - 17 April 2001)
RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report

Tens of thousands of Azerbaijanis in Iran attended annual celebrations on 1 July 2001 to mark the birthday of Babek, the leader of the armed resistance to Arab conquerors in 816 A.D. Babek is a symbol of resistance not only against Arab conquerors but also the religion (Islam) they were trying to introduce in the area. In 816 A.D. Azerbaijanis headed by Babek rose up in arms against their conquerors. Armed resistance lasted almost 20 years. The army of the Arab Halifat finally managed to defeat Babek's forces at the Bazz fortress (about 300 km from Tabriz, the administrative center of Iranian Azerbaijan).
Estimates of the number of Azerbaijanis who attended celebrations at the hill where the Bazz fortress is located in June 2000 range from tens of thousands to 300,000 people. The number of people participating in this year's celebrations is estimated at around 500,000. This information is hard to confirm, but the interest of the local population in their national hero is significant. Some local observers suggest that this mass gathering could indicate increased national awareness among Azerbaijanis in Iran.
The exact number of Azerbaijanis in Iran is not known. Estimates vary between 15 and 30 million. Local intellectuals have repeatedly criticized the government of Iran for neglecting the cultural demands of Azerbaijanis, depriving them from the right to education in their native language. More than 20 Azerbaijani-language newspapers have begun publication since Mohammed Khatami became president of Iran. But the Iranian authorities have failed to fulfill their promises to grant Azerbaijanis greater cultural autonomy.
(Mirza Khazar - 3 July 2001)

RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report