The Voice of Mirza Xazar

Judging from commentaries published in the Azerbaijani press after President Heidar Aliev's return to Baku on 14 April from his trip to the United States, it appears that the Azerbaijani press and political parties rather than Azerbaijan's leadership are again raising the old question: Who is going to be Aliev's successor? Since no one has a simple answer to this question, everyone is trying to do his best in guessing. Guessing is part of political life in Azerbaijan. And guessing is also an essential part of the life of ordinary people in Azerbaijan, since most Azerbaijanis are poor citizens of a country that is wallowing in corruption while proudly declaring itself an oil-rich democratic state. The subject of the "guess" here is obvious - the incompatability of oil riches and extreme poverty, the incompatability of an extremely rich tiny minority and the extreme poverty of the vast majority.
Azerbaijan has been under a cloud of "guesses" since Heydar Aliev came to power. Like ordinary citizens, every political party has its own guess in line with that party's desires and aspirations. Every political party has its own scenario which subsequently, in a thorough analysis, turns out to be the product of wishful thinking. Wishful thinking is also part of everyday life in Azerbaijan.
The circle of candidates to replace Heidar Aliev when he departs from power is narrowing. At present we have a circle with two personalities in it: Aliev's son Ilham and his chief of staff Ramiz Mehdiev, according to the local press. The opposition newspaper "Hurriyet," in a commentary published on April 17 and entitled "The successor will be Ramiz Mehdiev," follows the old pattern of guessing. But this guessing is not of a sort to be called wishful thinking. It has some essence in it, in that it comments on the latest events within Heidar Aliev's inner circle, especially the rise of Mehdiev.
That rise started during parliament elections last year and is still continuing. The newspaper claims that if Ramiz Mehdiev continues his political offensive, a conflict between him and Ilham Aliev is unavoidable. Is it true? One can only guess. Again, Azerbaijan is under cloud of guesswork: Heidar Aliev is firmly in power, newspapers are busy commenting on possible successors, and the opposition is waiting for "X" day (Aliev's departure from power) and keeping silence. When "X" day will be is, of course, not known. Aliev has no intention of ceding power. His son declared recently that Heidar Aliev will stay in power until the year 2007. So if Ilham Aliev is right, the guessing will continue in Azerbaijan at least for a while.
(Mirza Khazar - 17 April 2001)
RFE/RL Azerbaijan Report