The Voice of Mirza Xazar

The peace talks between Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev and Armenian President Robert Kocharian due to take place in Geneva in June have been indefinitely postponed. This was confirmed in Baku and Yerevan over the weekend. The Azerbaijani media have been discussing for last two weeks the likelihood that the talks would be postponed, pointing out that differences between Heidar Aliev and Robert Kocharian may negatively influence the prospects for those talks. But the main reason for the failure to organise such a meeting, according to Azerbaijani media, is twofold: Russia's "complicated" policy toward the Karabakh peace talks and Armenia's refusal to make concessions. Azerbaijani politicians and observers were not articulate enough to explain the meaning of Russia's "complicated game." But they argue that Russia wants to reimpose its supremacy over the entire Caucasus, and therefore Moscow is using the Karabakh peace talks as a tool to achieve this goal. It is hard to say whether this assessment is serious or not. But as far as the postponement itself is concerned, no one has explained what "indefinetely postponed" means. The OSCE negotiators and an Armenian spokesperson were very simplistic about the reasons for this unexpected decision. Both the OSCE mediators and an Armenian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman argue that "society is not yet ready to compromise and it is hard to say when the meeting will take place." But Novruz Mamedov, head of the foreign relations department of President Aliev's office, gave a completely different reason for the possible postponoment of the Geneva talks. In his interviews with Azerbaijani media last week, Mamedov said that as long as Armenia is not ready to make concessions, there is no need to convene a further meeting in Geneva between the two presidents. But, strangely enough, Mamedov failed to name a second more important reason: the reaction of the Azerbaijani society to the possible concessions President Aliev government was reportedly due to make. President Aliev in his remarks on Geneva talks on 26 May also referred to "concessions" as the main obstacle to achieving a settlement, but he did put it quite differently. "I believe that as a result of certain compromises we can achieve a solution to the Karabakh conflict," Aliev told a gathering in Baku. President Aliev's approach to the postponement of the Geneva talks is much more optimistic than remarks of the Armenian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, but the Azerbaijani president failed to mention a second more important reason for the postponement -- the anticipated public reaction. Why? One can only guess why. But the different explanations given in Yerevan and Baku for the postponement of the Geneva talks show the different attitudes of the two governments towards public opinion and towards their own people. U.S. mediator Carey Cavanaugh told Reuters on 28 May that the two leaders "had so far failed to prepare their people for the concessions both sides will have to make for peace." Mr. Cavanaugh is right. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan should do more to prepare their people for the concessions needed to make peace. But as long as one of the leaders of conflicting countries continues to neglect public opinion, and refuses to treat his own people as mature enough to influence the decisions made by the president, there will be no hope that the people of Azerbaijan will be ready to accept any concessions on this very sensitive issue. Not just the peaceful solution of the Karabakh issue is at stake, but democratic values too. Both are equally important. (Mirza Xazar) June 2001